Baseball season is upon us and it’s time to unfurl my annual pre-season predictions for this the 2009 baseball season. I’ve been waiting with great anticipation for this season because of the flurry of off-season activity between many of the teams which should make for some really interesting division races in the AL East (a three-team run), the NL East, the AL West and NL West. This years picks are much harder to select, but here goes nothing!
American League
EAST: Boston Red Sox
CENTRAL: Cleveland Indians
WEST: Oakland A’s
WILD CARD: New York Yankees
National League
EAST: Philadelphia Phillies
CENTRAL: Chicago Cubs
WEST: Arizona Diamondbacks
WILD CARD: Atlanta Braves
Reasoning
AL East: Even though the Yankees spent a whopping $441 million this off-season to upgrade their team who missed the playoffs for the first time in forever, they’re in the toughest division in baseball. The Red Sox made small, quiet moves to bolster their starting rotation which boasts Brad Penny as their #5 starter and John Smolz as their #4 starter come mid-season. I don’t think the Yankees starting rotation will stay as healthy as the Red Sox throughout the season Wang, Pettite, and Burnett will more than likely go down at some point throughout the season and that’ll be that. I also prefer the offense of the Red Sox to the Yankees, as Lowell and Ortiz are coming back healthy (they were absent down the stretch last year) and the addition of Rocco Baldelli and the swap of Jason Bay for Manny should prove to make a more stable team. I like the Red Sox to win the division and see the Yankees taking the Wild Card in a heated battle with the Tampa Bay Rays. (The Sox also have some extra cash to spend mid-season, a luxury not many teams have.)
AL Central: The Indians battled a lot of injuries last year but certainly have the most talent in the division. I think we’ll also see a rebound of the Tigers this year but don’t count out the White Sox who I think are being overlooked this year. I think there will be a good battle in the Central this year but the Indians will see rebound years by Haffner and Martinez to put them over the top by 3-5 games.
AL West: The Oakland A’s have made some pretty major upgrades to their offense adding Holiday, Giambi, Cabrera, Nomar, and a healthy Chavez. This team is going to put up some big numbers offensively. The major question mark for this team is their starting rotation. The same could also be said of the Angels because of injury concerns. Even though the Angels are the favorite to win the division, Oakland is my darkhorse team to win the division. Look for Billy Beane to make some moves with the extra cash reserves he’s amassed come mid-season to bolster his pitching staff if the A’s are in contention.
NL East:This will be an unbelievable three team race and you can’t count the Braves out, which is why I think they’ll slip past the Mets and pick up the wild card slot. I like their rotation, and as long as Chipper Jones can stay healthy and the back end of their bullpen can pull through they’ll be tough. I’m not a big believer in the Mets revamped bullpen, K-Rod coming off a tremendous year is a question to continue in the limelight of New York, not to mention he’s bound to have a down year after having so much success. Putz isn’t a lock to do a great job either in the closer role and there are still massive holes in their rotation not to mention question marks in the outfield. I think the addition of Sheffield will help shore things up, but not enough to overtake the Phillies amazing offense led by Howard and Utley. The addition of Ibanez and a full season of Jayson Werth over Geoff Jenkins in right field is a big bonus. Their bullpen is strong and they’re the team to beat in the NL East.
NL Central: I don’t think there’s really much competition for the Cubs in the Central, they’ll probably run away with it by 10+ games. If there were a darkhorse team to watch for, it’d be the Cardinals, just because LaMullet (Tony LaRussa) seems to figure out ways to win with what he’s got. Carpenter and Wainwright coming back healthy this season are the keys to success for the Cardinals this year.
NL West:I think the NL West can break any number of ways, but the one thing I’m sure of–the Padres will finish in last. The Dodgers are the favorite to win the division, but I’m going with the dark horse Diamondbacks to win the division. They’re a young team with a great pitching staff, solid bullpen and good offense. I think the Dodgers let too many pitchers go from last season to really be as solid as they were. I still think the Giants are one big offensive player away from winning the division, but for some reason they stayed away from Manny and Sheffield, which I think either one would’ve put them over the top. Pitching wise the Giants are untouchable in the NL West, but their offense is pitiful and even though they made some upgrades they’re still expecting Molina to match or exceed his career year from last season–not to mention a Pujols like year from Sandoval. If the Giants add a player mid-season that’s an offensive force, they’ll win the West.
World Series:Last year I had the Cubs winning it all… this year I’ve learned my lesson… or have I? I see the Cubs and Phillies in the NLCS with the Cubs over the Braves and the Phillies over the D-Backs. This will be a 7 games series with the Cubs coming out on top and visiting the WS for the first time in 64 years. I’ll take the Red Sox as the AL Pennant winner over the Indians in a 6 game series. The Indians will dispose of the Yankees in 6 and the Sox will take care of the A’s in 5. My pick for World Series Champion? The Red Sox in 6. Cubs just won’t be able to put it all together yet again… but at least we’ll have gotten one step closer.
Let the berating begin!
Related posts:
- season predictions 2008
- shooting blanks!
- season recap and postseason predictions
- the team to beat… (season 2)
- the team to beat.
In 2004 we were the leagues best team and got swept by the Sox. Would you like me to write to you how I dealt with this, or do you want to figure it out on your own when it happens to you? Of course we did when the series 2 years later, so there is hope…..oh wait it is the Cubs….no hope for that to happen to you. That right Monts, let the talking begin man, it is the most wonderful time of the year
I predict the Cubs collapse because everyone (I havent seen one writer yet say otherwise) says they will walk away with the Central. It doesnt really matter in the end because its all AAA baseball in the NL anyways. (Sorry Matt)
I love the position my Sox are in. As usual they get no respect and most pick them to finish near the bottom. Same was true in 05, same in 07, 08 and now this year too. They have great pitching and a very solid line up as long as Thome and Konerko hit. And as yesterday proved Cliff Lee is no perennial Cy Young guy. Cleveland is everyones favorite and I say they tank yet again. The AL is packed with power again so whoever remains healthiest looks to be the favorite. I do love this time of year, but man baseball and 42 degree weather just sucks.
Predicting a Cubs collapse? Way to go out on a limb on that one!
One step closer? Oh you mean the cubs will finally win 1 playoff game.
I’ll take the Angels over the Phillies in the World Series, especially after the Angels trade for Jake Peavy.
Give me Pujols for NL MVP and Teixiera for AL MVP, Cameron Maybin for NL ROY and Matt Wieters for AL ROY.
Some other random predictions:
Todd Helton will have more homeruns than Derrek Lee.
Javier Vazquez could be the Cy Young winner.
Ryan Howard does not lead the league in HRs.
Trevor Hoffman will not record 20 saves.
What say you Monts!?
Your random predictions are pretty “safe” if you ask me… Lee’s been on the decline for years ever since he broke his wrist… Helton would only have to hit 22 HR’s to beat Lee which is pretty doable at Coor’s alone. Howard not leading the league in HR’s is easy considering there are a ton of guys now that have the potential, not the least of which is Ryan Braun. And Hoffman probably will be hurt most of the year… like he already is. 20 Saves will be hard to come by.
I’ll say your Vazquez prediction is a pretty interesting one… and you’re certainly climbing out on a limb for that one… but I’d say it’s possible considering the rotation he’s in. Interesting pick, good sleeper.
I don’t think Teixiera will win the AL MVP… he’ll collapse under the pressure of NY. I think he’ll put up Giambi-like numbers.
And to have the Angels trade for Peavy’s gonna take some financial maneuvering… they don’t have much salary room. They’d have to move some guys to the Padres or find a third team to include in the deal… could be an interesting scenario, however.
How much longer do you expect to endure the Kevin Gregg experiment? I remember you telling me during our road trip that if he was made closer over Marmol that the cubs would not make the world series.
Lincecum’s arm will fall off.
How long will the Gregg experiment last ± 5 blown saves (what say you?) I say under… probably 4. He blew 9 saves last year. I think he’ll lose the closer role and it won’t matter for the World Series… so, there’s still a chance… but if he’s the closer come postseason, it’ll be a quick first round exit that’s for sure… they won’t be able to win the close games.
Lincecum’s arm will fall off… well, after his opening start it’s a good possibility! I’d say look for Pujols’ elbow to explode as well.
I think the biggest question is how long before Milton Bradley (Gameboard) goes batshit crazy! ± 3.5 months…
That desipio article is one of my favorites ever!
I’ve never laughed harder at a headline title before than I did that one! It was brilliant! I still laugh at it… I think the picture makes the article.
So Steve, Helton will have more HR than Lee but you want to trade Lee to me for one of my two above average pitchers? tisk, tisk.
Rags, but I figured you’d like Lee at your utility spot instead of Wes Helms. And no counter offer? Lee will be shopped all next week for a starter, with all the cubs fans in our league it should be an easy task.
I’m open for discussion from you or Monts.
[...] Last year I had the Red Sox winning it all and boy did I fall short… In ‘08 it was even worse… I picked the Cubs. In ‘07 I picked the Red Sox… and I was right… it was like a drug and I haven’t been able to stop the predictions since! So, here’s my brilliant analysis of how the 2010 baseball season will play out… cause it always happens like I say! [...]